Almirola holds off Bodine and Busch for Michigan win

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/12/2010 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aric Almirola captured his second victory in the Camping World Truck Series by taking Saturday's VFW 200 at Michigan International Speedway.

Almirola took the lead for the first time with seven laps to go when he pulled ahead of Todd Bodine and Kyle Busch after they ran three-wide for the top spot. He held off several challenges from Bodine in the final laps before beating him at the finish by 0.111 seconds.

"Our [truck] was not as good as we wanted it to be in the beginning of the race, but [crew chief] Richie Wauters and the guys on our team did a really good job adjusting the truck all day long," Almirola said.

Almirola claimed his first victory in the series last month at Dover. He is driving the No.51 Toyota for Billy Ballew Motorsports full-time this year after he previously shared driving duties with Busch in that truck.

"What an awesome Billy Ballew Motorsports team; It's their first win at Michigan, so I finally did something Kyle didn't do," Almirola added.

Bodine led the most laps with 33, en route to his second place finish, while Busch ended up third in his No.18 Toyota. Busch is in his first year as driver and owner in the series.

"I suck at Michigan," Busch said. "Aric Almirola did it in the 51 [truck]. I've driven it for five years, and couldn't get it."

Four-time and defending series champion Ron Hornaday Jr. took the fourth spot. Austin Dillon, the pole sitter, overcame a pit-road penalty late in the race to settle for a fifth-place finish. Dillon left his stall with the gas can still attached to his car.

Timothy Peters, Jason White, David Starr, Elliott Sadler and Nelson Piquet Jr. completed the top-10.

With the win, Almirola moved to within 55 points of leader Bodine, who won last week at Texas.

After 38 of 100 laps were completed, NASCAR halted the race when a shower moved over the two-mile oval. It was delayed for 40 minutes before racing resumed.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

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