Chargers rally for win, but Seahawks clinch division

Football Betting Lines

12/25/2006 - Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philip Rivers did it again, rebounding from a horrid start to lead the Chargers to a comeback victory, 20-17, over Seattle.

Despite the defeat, the Seahawks clinched their third straight NFC West title by virtue of San Francisco's 26-20 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

Rivers completed only 10-of-30 passes for 181 yards with two TDs, but he found Vincent Jackson for a 37-yard score with 29 seconds left that gave the Chargers the win, and kept San Diego (13-2) in line for home field advantage throughout the playoffs with their ninth straight win.

The Chargers are a game ahead of the 12-3 Ravens for the AFC's top seed, and can clinch home field with either a win next week against Arizona, or a Ravens loss to Buffalo. The Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Chargers thanks to a 16-13 win in week four.

Jackson inexplicably broke wide open down the deep middle in the game's final minute, and Rivers hit him in stride in the end zone for the game-winning score. The reception capped a five-catch, 97-yard game for Jackson, who also had a touchdown catch in the second quarter.

"As soon as the defense made the stop we came back on the field we just said let's go and score," said Jackson.

San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson had another stellar game on the ground, gaining 123 yards on 22 carries, but failed to add to his NFL-record 31 touchdowns.

Matt Hasselbeck completed 17-of-37 passes for 189 yards, and threw two costly interceptions, both in San Diego territory. Shaun Alexander had 31 rushes for 140 yards and two scores, but Seattle (8-7) fell for the third straight week. Bobby Engram had four catches for 65 yards. and Deion Branch caught five balls for 61 yards in the loss for the Seahawks, who head to Tampa Bay next Sunday to conclude the regular season.

"They (the Chargers) were strong, fast, and big. They played with a lot of intensity," said Alexander, who added, "It's always nice to win your division."

Jackson's game-winner capped a 59-yard drive that only took 1:31, and left Seattle with little time on offense. A Shawne Merriman sack and three Hasselbeck incompletions sealed the win for the Chargers.

Merriman had three sacks on the day, giving him 15 1/2 on the season.

Seattle moved the ball well on its second drive, driving to the San Diego 34- yard line. The Seahawks couldn't capitalize, though, as Hasselbeck was intercepted by Clinton Hart at the San Diego 23.

Neither team managed much on offense for the rest of the first half, until Tomlinson broke through to set up the game's first score. Taking over at the San Diego 14-yard line, the MVP-candidate burst through the right side and streaked 62 yards down the field to the Seattle 24-yard line. Five plays later Rivers found Jackson for a nine-yard touchdown pass, giving the Chargers a 7-0 lead with 3:18 left in the first half.

The Seahawks appeared poised to answer on the ensuing possession, again driving into San Diego territory, moving to the 26-yard line with just over one minute left in the first half. Hasselbeck overthrew Engram deep over the middle, though, and Engram deflected the ball, which Hart was able to dive and haul in at the six-yard line for his second interception of the game.

A Nate Kaeding 46-yard field goal put the Chargers up 10-0 with 12:12 left in the third quarter.

Nate Burleson electrified the crowd with a 96-yard return of the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown that could have made it 10-7 early in the third quarter, but the play was called back on a hold by Bennie Joppru.

Starting at their own 48-yard line after pinning the Chargers deep in their own territory, the Seahawks were able to move the ball to the San Diego 33- yard line. The left side of the Seattle line blew open a gaping hole on the next play, and Alexander sprinted 33-yards virtually untouched for the touchdown, pulling Seattle to within 10-7 with 6:10 left in the third quarter.

A 40-yard field goal by Kaeding padded San Diego's lead to 13-7 with 2:24 left in the third.

San Diego punter Mike Scifres shanked a 30-yard punt on the first play of the fourth quarter, setting the Seahawks up at their own 45. Alexander busted through the middle for a nine-yard score, giving the Seahawks their first lead of the game, 14-13, with 12:58 left in the game.

Seattle extended to a 17-13 lead on a 33-yard field goal by Josh Brown with 5:07 left, capping a 12-play, 47-yard drive that drained 6:09 off of the clock.

Game Notes

Seattle cornerback Marcus Trufant was helped off of the field early in the third quarter with an injured right ankle. He was taken to the locker room for X-rays and did not return...This was the first time that Tomlinson could not find the end zone since week five against Pittsburgh, a 10-game streak...Hasselbeck was sacked six times.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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