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03/11/2010 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 23rd-ranked Texas A&M Aggies are the fourth-seeded team in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, and they will play a quarterfinal-round game against the surprising 12th-seeded Nebraska Cornhuskers today.
Next up for the winner of this game is a semifinal clash with either top- seeded Kansas or ninth-seeded Texas Tech.
Not only did Nebraska manage to upset fifth-seeded Missouri yesterday, but the game was rather lopsided, as the Cornhuskers cruised to a 75-60 triumph. Nebraska has never won this tournament and owns a 6-13 record in the event all-time. The Huskers racked up a 12-3 record against non-conference foes during the regular season, but that mark was clearly overshadowed by a 2-14 record against Big 12 opponents. Still, the win in Wednesday first-round affair offers renewed confidence.
Texas A&M has only won three of the 16 Big 12 Conference Tournament games it has played, and the team is still in search of its first league crown. The Aggies are certainly playing with a great deal of confidence right now, as they closed out the regular season with three consecutive wins to move to 22-8 overall and 11-5 in conference. Last Saturday, they easily disposed of Oklahoma in a 69-54 final on the road.
The Aggies beat the Cornhuskers, 64-53, back in January, but Nebraska still owns an 11-7 advantage in the all-time series.
The Cornhuskers are a modest offensive team, averaging 66.3 ppg on 43.5 percent shooting from the floor heading into this tournament. Defensively, the Cornhuskers were permitting 65.8 ppg by the end of the regular season, and Ryan Anderson (11.0 ppg) was the only double-digit scorer on the roster. Brandon Richardson was the best player for Nebraska yesterday, as he scored 19 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the floor. Anderson also shot 6-of-8 from the field and finished with 16 points and nine rebounds. Both Jorge Brian Diaz and Lance Jeter scored 10 points in the triumph, and Jeter added seven boards and six assists. The Cornhuskers connected on 55.8 percent of their field goal attempts against Missouri, including an 8-of-14 effort from three-point range. They also shot 19-of-22 from the foul line, earned a 38-22 rebounding advantage and limited Missouri to 33.9 percent shooting.
When fans discuss the best players in the Big 12, Texas A&M's Donald Sloan is rarely mentioned. The fact of the matter is that while Sloan doesn't possess impressive numbers in assists, rebounds or steals, his 17.9 ppg have been a major key to the success of the Aggies this season. There is only one other active double-digit scorer in the lineup for A&M, as Bryan Davis provides an even 10.0 ppg. While Sloan, Davis and company are averaging 72.0 ppg, they are limiting opponents to 64.4 ppg on 40.4 percent shooting from the field. Against Oklahoma in the regular season the finale, the Aggies connected on 51 percent of their field goal attempts while limiting the Sooners to 36.2 percent. A 36-26 rebounding advantage also helped the cause.
<< Longhorns and Bears meet in Big 12 Tournament
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 21st-ranked Baylor Bears are seeded
third in the Big 12 Conference Tournament, and they will begin action in the
event tonight with a quarterfinal-round matchup against the sixth-seeded Texas
Longhorns.
<< Miners open C-USA Tournament play against Knights
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Winners of 14th straight games, the top-seeded
and 25th-ranked Texas El Paso Miners set their sites on a C-USA Tournament
championship, starting with tonight's quarterfinal-round matchup against the
ninth-seeded UCF
<< TCU seeks upset of BYU in Mountain West quarterfinals
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A rematch of the regular-season finale has
14th-ranked and second-seeded BYU taking on the seventh-seeded TCU Horned
Frogs in the quarterfinals of the 2010 Mountain West Conference Tournament
tonight at the Thom
<< Falcons face tall task in Mountain West Tourney tilt with Lobos
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Less than 24 hours after picking up just
their second win all-time in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, the Air
Force Falcons are back on the hardwood of the Thomas & Mack Center in Las
Vegas as they
Orange and Hoyas clash in Big East quarterfinals >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked and top-seeded Syracuse
Orange make their much anticipated debut in the Big East Tournament today, as
they lock up with the 22nd-ranked and eighth-seeded Georgetown Hoyas in the
quarterfinals at
Wildcats and Golden Eagles square off in Big East Tourney >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams that have a history of playing close
games meet in the quarterfinal round of the Big East Tournament today, as the
fifth-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles battle the fourth-seeded and 10th-ranked
Villanova
Surging Irish set sights on Panthers in tournament play >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a surprising regular-season showing, the
16th-ranked and second-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers now begin their run in the
Big East Tournament tonight against the seventh-seeded Notre Dame Fighting
Irish in the
Thrashers try to end slide in Columbus >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Thrashers will be out to halt a poorly-timed
three-game losing streak in tonight's matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets
from Nationwide Arena.
Atlanta had put itself in the Eastern Conference playoff mix with
Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
Get free 2009 Super Bowl Betting from top rated online sportsbook MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online Super Bowl betting VISA Mastercard
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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