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07/26/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jiyai Shin replaced Ai Miyazato atop the world rankings for women's golf following her win Sunday at the lucrative Evian Masters.
Shin birdied the 18th hole for a one-shot victory over three players, assuming the No. 1 ranking for the second time this season.
The 22-year-old South Korean is one of three players who have been No. 1 since Lorena Ochoa's retirement. Shin took over the top spot on the day Ochoa played her farewell round and still had it when she withdrew the Wednesday of the State Farm Classic to have an emergency appendectomy.
Since then, Miyazato and Cristie Kerr have exchanged the top ranking with Shin dropping all the way back to No. 4 at the beginning of last week, behind Suzann Pettersen.
With her win in France over one of the best non-major fields in women's golf, Shin moved up three places to re-gain the No. 1 ranking. Miyazato, Kerr and Pettersen slipped one spot apiece, while Yani Tseng remained No. 5 this week.
The next nine places in the rankings also remained unchanged, with Na Yeon Choi, Paula Creamer, Anna Nordqvist, Song-Hee Kim, Karrie Webb, In Kyung Kim, Michelle Wie, Angela Stanford and Inbee Park occupying positions 6-14 again.
Morgan Pressel, one of the runners-up to Shin, moved up two places to No. 15, bumping Sakura Yokomine and Mi-Jeong Jeon down one spot apiece. Pressel missed a shorter birdie putt than Shin's on the 18th hole to squander a chance to force a playoff.
Chie Arimura and Catriona Matthew remained 18th and 19th and Sun Ju Ahn moved up one place to round out the top 20 following a good showing in France. Matthew will defend her title at this week's Women's British Open.
Alexis Thompson, the 15-year-old rising star, also finished as a runner-up to Shin on Sunday and vaulted 75 places to No. 74 this week. Thompson was trying to become the youngest winner in LPGA Tour history by almost three years.
Choi was the other runner-up to Shin in France.
<< Revs waive Videira
Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Revolution announced on
Monday that they have waived midfielder Michael Videira.
Videira signed with the Revolution in December 2008 after playing for six
months with Hamilton in
<< Re-loaded Angels to begin series with Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In danger of falling out of the race for the American
League West crown, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim made a big and bold move
in acquiring ace pitcher Dan Haren on Sunday.
While it is unknown when Haren can contribut
<< Giants, Marlins ready for clash between scorching teams
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the hottest teams in baseball square off this
evening when the San Francisco Giants welcome the Florida Marlins to town for
the start of a four-game series at AT&T Park.
San Francisco has won four straight and 1
<< ChiSox seeking to get back on track at Mariners' expense
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A subpar road trip has tightened things atop the American
League Central for the first-place Chicago White Sox. A return home against a
favorable opponent could help the club get back on track.
Chicago seeks a fifth consec
Altintop to give it "one more year" at Bayern >>
Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich midfielder Hamit Altintop has
admitted this could be his final season with the Bundesliga champions.
The Turkey international has found first-team opportunities hard to come by in
recent time
Report: Vick cleared by NFL >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL has reportedly cleared Michael
Vick to play after completing its investigation into the shooting that
occurred last month outside a restaurant celebrating his 30th birthday.
According t
Raul confirms exit from Real Madrid >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Raul confirmed on Monday that he is leaving
Real Madrid after spending the last 16 years at the Bernabeu.
The 33-year-old striker is the all-time leading scorer in the club's history
with 323 goals in 740
Browns sign second-round pick Hardesty >>
Berea, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Browns have signed rookie running
back Montario Hardesty to a multi-year contract.
The Browns selected the Tennessee product in the second round (59th overall)
of the 2010 draft and expect him t
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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